Manual performance is already known: Which prior assumption must be revisited?
The district lacks a comparable baseline for the manual process, making claims about replacement performance uncertain.
The question
A school district plans to replace a manual process that forecasts course demand and allocates sections. Historical records show outcomes after administrators adjusted the forecasts, but the district has no documented measure of the original manual process before those adjustments. Which prior assumption must be revisited?
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- Administrators can explain allocation decisions.Administrator explanations may provide contextual evidence, but they do not substitute for a documented baseline measure.
- Manual performance is already known. ✓Without an unadjusted baseline, the district cannot reliably compare the AI process with the original process it intends to replace.
- Historical records can support evaluation.Historical records may support evaluation, although their adjusted nature limits what they establish about the manual baseline.
- Forecast accuracy is the only replacement criterion.Replacement assessment can include impacts, costs, benefits, and operational conditions beyond forecast accuracy alone.
The trap
Separate post-adjustment historical outcomes from an actual baseline of the process being replaced. How to remember it
The district lacks a comparable baseline for the manual process, making claims about replacement performance uncertain.
How many of these would you get right?
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