Build a targeted defect test set and require: Which evaluation | AIGP
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Build a targeted defect test set and require: Which evaluation change is most defensible?

AIGP Understanding How to Govern AI Development Medium

Rare severe conditions need targeted representative evidence and a metric tied to detecting the consequential failure, not aggregate accuracy.

The question

A manufacturing inspection model detects a defect occurring in 0.5% of units; failures can cause serious equipment damage. A random test set produces 99.5% accuracy but contains few defective units. Which evaluation change is most defensible?

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  1. Increase the training set while retaining accuracy as the primary metric.
    More training data may help learning, but accuracy still obscures whether rare dangerous defects are detected reliably.
  2. Replace real defects with synthetic defects and evaluate aggregate performance.
    Synthetic defects may support exploration but cannot alone establish real-world detection performance or realistic operating conditions.
  3. Use random testing and report accuracy with confidence intervals.
    Random testing may contain too few failures to estimate detection performance, while accuracy remains dominated by nondefective units.
  4. Build a targeted defect test set and require a detection-rate criterion.
    Targeted testing supplies evidence for rare conditions, and a detection criterion reflects the severe consequence of missed defects.
The trap
Ask whether the test contains enough consequential cases to estimate the risk-relevant error.

How to remember it

Rare severe conditions need targeted representative evidence and a metric tied to detecting the consequential failure, not aggregate accuracy.

How many of these would you get right?

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