Prioritize high-severity harms even when their likelihood | AIGP
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Prioritize high-severity harms even when their likelihood: Which risk should receive priority?

AIGP Understanding How to Govern AI Development Medium

A low-probability failure can outrank frequent inconvenience when its consequences threaten time-sensitive access.

The question

A hospital administrative scheduling tool does not provide clinical advice. Testing shows a rare failure could block time-sensitive appointments, while a frequent minor error creates extra clerical work. The governance process must prioritize risks by potential harm, not occurrence alone. Which risk should receive priority?

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  1. Prioritize whichever error has the lower remediation cost.
    Remediation cost informs resource allocation but does not satisfy the explicit requirement to prioritize potential harm.
  2. Prioritize the frequent clerical error because it affects more cases.
    Frequency matters, but the stated requirement emphasizes potential harm, making severe appointment blockage the higher priority.
  3. Prioritize high-severity harms even when their likelihood is low. ✓
    A rare scheduling failure with potentially serious consequences deserves priority over frequent inconvenience when severity is the stated decision criterion.
  4. Prioritize the error producing the lowest scheduling accuracy.
    Accuracy is relevant, but aggregate accuracy alone does not establish which failure creates the more serious administrative harm.
The trap
Do not let occurrence counts eclipse the consequences specified by the governance requirement.

How to remember it

A low-probability failure can outrank frequent inconvenience when its consequences threaten time-sensitive access.

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