Test plausible severe scenarios explicitly: Which testing | AIGP
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Test plausible severe scenarios explicitly: Which testing distinction matters most?

AIGP Understanding How to Govern AI Development Medium

Rare severe events require explicit scenario or stress testing, not merely more routine data or average performance reporting.

The question

A retailer’s demand planner performs well on ordinary weeks, but failures during pandemics and port closures could cause severe shortages. Assume data quality, provenance, privacy, and ordinary validation are already addressed. Which testing distinction matters most?

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  1. Report average forecast error quarterly
    Quarterly averages summarize routine performance and may dilute failures occurring during unusual but consequential disruptions.
  2. Add more ordinary weekly examples
    More routine data may improve average fit but does not directly examine rare conditions with disproportionate operational consequences.
  3. Compare performance against another planner
    Benchmarking another planner may provide context, but it does not demonstrate robustness under specified severe disruptions.
  4. Test plausible severe scenarios explicitly
    Scenario testing directly evaluates rare, high-consequence conditions that ordinary aggregate performance can conceal in demand planning.
The trap
Look for the option that directly recreates or evaluates the exceptional condition named in the scenario.

How to remember it

Rare severe events require explicit scenario or stress testing, not merely more routine data or average performance reporting.

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