Build a comparable baseline for outcomes: Before replacing the current process, what evidence is most
A comparable baseline is needed to interpret speed claims and detect operational or subgroup impacts.
The question
A public-benefit office reports that an AI triage pilot processes applications faster than the manual team, but the pilot used easier cases and extra temporary staff. Existing records do not show wait-time or error differences by applicant group. Before replacing the current process, what evidence is most important?
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- Build a comparable baseline for outcomes, conditions, and groups. ✓A baseline should cover wait times, errors, staffing, case mix, and subgroup impacts so the replacement decision reflects normal operations and affected people.
- Review the vendor's classification benchmark.A vendor benchmark has limited scope and cannot establish outcomes for this office, its normal workload, or affected applicant groups.
- Compare pilot speed with its target.Speed against a target does not show whether gains persist under normal staffing and case mix or whether errors differ across applicant groups.
- Use pilot satisfaction surveys as the replacement decision basis.Satisfaction is relevant, but surveys alone cannot quantify operational errors, wait times, staffing effects, or subgroup differences.
The trap
Check whether comparison conditions, outcomes, and affected populations are genuinely comparable. How to remember it
A comparable baseline is needed to interpret speed claims and detect operational or subgroup impacts.
How many of these would you get right?
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