The severity and exposure evidence: Before approval, which evidence would most directly resolve the
The key uncertainty concerns severe consequences and potentially underestimated exposure, requiring targeted severity and exposure evidence.
The question
A logistics scheduler may occasionally assign a route that delays temperature-sensitive medication. Historical data suggests the event is uncommon, but the potential harm is severe and existing incident records are incomplete. Before approval, which evidence would most directly resolve the prioritization uncertainty?
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- Average delivery-time improvement results.Average improvement may show benefit but cannot determine priority for rare, severe medication-delay harms.
- A user survey about scheduler convenience.Convenience feedback does not establish likelihood, severity, exposure, or consequences of medication delays.
- A larger sample of routine shipments.Routine shipments may improve general performance estimates but may not illuminate rare temperature-sensitive medication failures.
- The severity and exposure evidence. ✓Severity and exposure evidence allows prioritization despite low observed frequency and reveals whether incomplete records understate the risk.
The trap
Rare events can warrant priority when consequences are severe; seek evidence on both exposure and impact. How to remember it
The key uncertainty concerns severe consequences and potentially underestimated exposure, requiring targeted severity and exposure evidence.
How many of these would you get right?
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