Rank risks by weighing likelihood and severity | AIGP
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Rank risks by weighing likelihood and severity: Which distinction should govern prioritization?

AIGP Understanding How to Govern AI Development Easy

Risk prioritization should consider both likelihood and severity, so rare serious harms are not eclipsed by frequent minor errors.

The question

An internal employee-assistance model could rarely give advice causing serious financial harm, while minor routing errors occur daily. Which distinction should govern prioritization?

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  1. Rank risks by estimated organizational cost across incidents and service disruption.
    Organizational cost may be relevant, but it can omit serious harm to employees and other affected people.
  2. Rank risks primarily by how often failures occur.
    Frequency indicates occurrence, but it does not capture the potentially greater consequences of rare financial harm.
  3. Rank risks by weighing likelihood and severity, then document treatment for rare, high-severity harms. ✓
    Prioritization should consider both probability and consequence, ensuring that rare but serious harms receive appropriate management attention and treatment.
  4. Rank risks by the number of employees exposed to them.
    The affected population can inform prioritization, but it does not make exposure count the decisive risk dimension.
The trap
Do not let frequent minor errors automatically outrank rare risks with substantially greater consequences.

How to remember it

Risk prioritization should consider both likelihood and severity, so rare serious harms are not eclipsed by frequent minor errors.

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